Overview

INDIA-world's largest Democracy-goes to poll in three phases to elect 552 representatives for the Lower House (nationally known as Lok Sabha) of the country's Parliament. The poll, according to the Election Commission's notification, begins on April 20 and will be through May 10, 2004. The General Election is considered as sacred process that not only retifies the principles of Democracy generally once in five years but it strengthens the pillars of Indian democracy as well. Around 675 million people would cast their votes to elect their chosen representatives who would form the 14th Lok Sabha. In the 13th Lok Sabha, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Mr. A. B. Vajpayee was the single largest Party with the Congress led by Ms Sonia Gandhi to follow with 109 seats in the Lower House of Parliament. The massive administrative arrangements could be gauged by the fact that over 1.07 million electronic voting machnies will be used for the poll purpose. And the poll expenditure would be over Rs 1000 crore, according to a provisional estimate. In last five years, poll expenditure has zoomed to Rs 880 crore in 1999 (Last Lok Sabha poll) from Rs 154 crore in 1989 poll. The voting pattern shows that the percentage of female voters who cast their votes has significantly increased from 46.63 percent in the third General Election to 55.64 percent in 1999 election. The percentage of male voters who polled however remained almost constant- the percentage ranging between 63-66 percent.

A look at the results of the last five General Elections reveals that there is a decline in the performance of the National Parties taken together both in terms of total number of seats won as well as their vote share. State Parties and Other Registered Parties gained at the cost of National Parties during this period. This is one of the factors that has contributed to federal coalition governments in the recent past. While the National Parties got a total of 470 seats in the 543 member Lok Sabha in 1989 elections with a share of 79.34 percent of total votes polled, in the next elections, two years later, they got 465 seats although the vote share rose to 80.91 per cent. But their vote share declined to 69.08 percent and 67.98 percent in 1996 and 1998 General Elections respectively. Correspondingly during 1996, they got a total of 403 seats which further declined to 387 in 1998 and 369 in 1999.

All the State Parties, put together, could get only 27 seats in 1989 elections. They improved their tally to 51 in 1991 and 129 in 1996. But there was a decline in seat share to 101 in 1998 and subsequently an increase to 158 in 1999. There was a corresponding increase in their vote share also. In 1989 their vote share was 9.28 percent of the total valid votes polled. In 1991 they improved by a clear 3.7 per cent in their vote share taking it to 12.98 percent. In 1996 elections they got 22.43 percent of votes. In 1998 their vote share declined marginally to 18.79 percent but increased again to 26.93 percent in the 1999 polls.

Registered Parties together had 19, 4, 4, 49 and 10 representatives in the last five Lok Sabhas respectively. Their vote share was 6.13 percent in 1989, 2.19 percent in 1991, 3.22 percent in 1996, 10.87 percent in 1998 and 3.22 percent in 1999. The sudden spurt in the number of seats won by the registered parties in 1998 and their vote share is explained by the fact that parties like BJD and Trinamool Congress which broke away from the Janata Dal and the Congress respectively were included in the list of registered parties.

As for Independent members, there were 12 in 1989, one in 1991, nine in 1996 and six each in 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha. Their performance in terms of vote share was nothing to write home about also. It was at a high of 6.28 percent in 1996 elections and at a low of 2.37 percent in 1998 and 2.74 percent in 1999 elections. In 1989 it was 5.25 percent and in 1991 it was 3.92 percent.

A comparison of the relative performance of the four groups of parties, in terms of their vote share and the percentage of seats won reveals some interesting facts. National Parties always got a higher percentage of seats compared to their vote share. Registered Parties and Independents were the losers who could get lesser percentage of seats compared to their vote share. The performance of State Parties was not even during this period.

Poll Schedules: 2004

13th Lok Sabha (1999)- Party Position

VOTER PERCENTAGE

POLL EXPENDITURE

Updated on May 13, 2004

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